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From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
The 2007 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Magic Rant
Las Vegas
May 2, 2007
6:47 A.M
Dear Friend,
Can it be another year has passed? It’s time for my annual Kentucky Derby Rant.
Before I get into the Rant proper, let me catch you up on some news.
For those of you who have been looking for a Rant, I haven’t done one in a while. It’s allergy season here in Vegas, and I didn’t think I was susceptible. I was wrong.
That coupled with mostly 16 hour days working on the new Post Time Daily 2.0 and the mother of all handicapping software (referred to as ‘Black Magic’ at the Mega Seminar) has kept me both under the weather and bleary eyed.
The good news, and the big news, is that Post Time Daily 2.0 is just about ready to go to Beta testing. As promised, the first to get their hands on it will be the Seminar attendees. We’ll work out any remaining bugs and then release it to everyone. How long will that take? Hard to say. It largely depends what kinds of things we discover during the testing period, things we haven’t anticipated.
I’ve got to tell you that it is, without a doubt, the finest past performance product ever, with some features that will blow you away. I’m hoping that it will be a real asset in your work. It’s a free program, and I’m hoping that the buzz and word of mouth that it will generate will encourage widespread usage. For more info on the Post Time Daily and breaking news on the new Post Time Daily 2.0, please visit www.posttimedaily.com
One program that will not see widespread usage is the aforementioned Black Magic. It’s a dream project for me, and I’m taking lots of time on it. It’s a fusion of all of the Handicapping Magic principles, with a super number, based on the Master Handicapper numbers, but vastly improved. Pace Graphs, Exotic Patterns, Advanced Form Cycle Patters, Layoffs, Plus Factors, and lots of options to make it look and work exactly as the advanced handicapper wants it to work.
I want this only in the hands of those serious and passionate about this great game.
Like my handicapping, there is a lot, and I mean a lot, of things to look at in the software. Yet, the numbers are proving so strong that it is amazing even me. And I’ve been down this damned ‘numbers tunnel’ many times.
Which brings me to a very important point. Because I’ve been working on the numbers and the software so much, I haven’t had as much time as usual to devote to my wagering exploits. I’ve done fairly well when I have, but my usual ‘feel’ for the game has been off. While I can attribute some of it to fatigue, I’ve got to believe that something else is going on.
And that something else is something that I warn against all the time.
When you get too into the numbers in a race, you can forget what the purpose of handicapping a race is. Namely to find value. Period. Full stop.
Not to predict the winner, have bragging rights, or be king of the racing world.
Value.
Letting your inner sense work, and letting the bet make you, are the most valuable skills. That and pattern recognition. Those of you who have taken my first Personal Lesson will appreciate just how important I think that is. The feedback on this first Personal Lesson has been overwhelmingly positive, with several ‘you’ve changed my handicapping life’ testimonials. I’m so pleased by that, I can barely find the words.
In any event, I can see light at the end of the big program tunnel, and you’ll be hearing about it sooner rather than later.
By the way, my value sense isn’t completely gone—I’ve had some very nice and tidy scores.
I found a Dream Bet (Mega Seminar) on April 12, 2007 at Hawthorne in the 8th race. The 9 Horse—Ripe Tomato—was the best closer in a Heavy Pressure race a Five Star Reverser, PLUS it was a Type I pattern. As icing on the cake, it was a muddy track that day, and this horse had the best Dan Serra off track numbers.
Ripe Tomato paid $31.60 and won by 6. The second horse was another Five Star Reverser that had a nice closing style.
Post Time did a great job making a DVD/instructional package called the Mega Seminar In A Box, and I'm almost embarassed at the postitive feedback that we've received about it. For more info, http://www.posttimedaily.com/MegaCourseDVDLetterFINAL.htm
Speaking of Dan Serra, we presented the Professional Handicapper Elite version at the Mega Seminar. I know many of you have asked for it, and I’ve been working with Dan and Len on how and when they want it released. There’s a mode in the Elite version that provides the most solid of the solid plays. It’s very selective, and these don’t show up in every race, but when they do, they’re very solid.
April 12th also saw a nice score at Keeneland. In the third race, the 6 horse, El Battalon, was the Fulcrum. What was unusual was that although it was the Fulcrum, it had a closing running style. And this was a Heavy Pressure race. And a Type I pattern to boot. About 47 seconds to handicap. El Pigallon paid $54.00 to win.
These are just a couple off the top of my head, but I don’t want to get into a lot of past scores, as there’s a long and complicated Derby to deal with.
Let me take you through my thinking on the major prep races leading up to the Derby, and take you through some of the horses and my handicapping.
Wood Memorial
The Fulcrum Horse was, of course, No Biz Like Shobiz. The Fulcrum Pace was 110 and 1, and the next fastest horse at the second call looked like it could do 111. So, Nobiz slowed it down to 111 and was able to hang on.
But here’s the important bit.
Only one other horse in the race had ever competed successfully against a 110 and 1 or faster second call pace.
That was the 3 horse, Sightseeing, who is not in the Derby. But at 18-1, he almost won the Wood. The $26.80 exacta was not hard to take, as this called for a simple 2 horse box. Now admittedly, many of these colts had never run so fast, but that was all conjecture. Sightseeing was comfortable with the pace. And that was that.
Santa Anita Derby
Won by Tiago. Sam P., Liquidity, Bwana Bull finished 3rd, 4th, and 5th respectively in that race, and they’re all in the Run For The Roses.
Tiago—lightly raced, had only 3 races coming into the SA Derby, and was on a classic Type I pattern (albeit with a layoff between the top race and second back) or a Type III (move then rest) after the layoff.
Still, I could find no numbers on that horse, and that’s how horses pay $60.60.
Blue Grass
No, I’m just not going to refer to it as the Toyota Blue Grass. I’m supposed to, I guess. At least Toyota makes good automobiles. But the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Yuck! What’s next? Welcome to the 2008 Masters Golf Tournament presented by The Dow Chemical Corporation. And stay tuned for the 2008 Exxon U.S. Open. I shudder.
Anyway, Dominican was the winner, and the top PPF in Two Excuse Mode and LASST mode. So, as a 3 year old, it won the Rushaway at Turfway, the Blue Grass at Keeneland, and now it’s the Derby. Way on the outside for the Derby, in Post 19.
In winning the Blue Grass, Dominican beat Street Sense, who finished 2nd, Zanjero was 3rd, and Teuflesberg finished 4th. There wasn’t even a length separating the top 4 horses.
Big issue in this race is the pace. They went 116 and change for the 6 furlongs, and then, if this time is right, Dominican closed for an equivalent 2 furlong fraction of about 20 and 3. So while the newly minted pace experts prattle on about this, what is important is to look at whether the horses coming out of this race can compete against the Fulcrum Horse in the Derby.
I already know that this race will be a key to understanding the Kentucky Derby. I know that because of the extremely slow pace, the final fractions and the PPFs on these horses will be very high, and so, when I open TMM, they will show as the best PPFs. The real question is the running styles, patterns, and how they have reacted to the faster pace they will undoubtedly be facing in the Derby.
Arkansas Derby
Curlin blew this field out, and won pretty impressively. I used Storm in May in that race as my key, and it finished 2nd at 30-1. (Okay, okay, I like big turf numbers in route races, what can I say?) Curlin is 3 for 3 going into the Derby, winning each race by an average of 9 lengths. And get this. One race was on the lead (its first), one off the pace (its win in the Rebel), and one was pressing (the Arkansas Derby). Curlin could very well be a champion race horse.
Illinois Derby
Won by Cowtown Cat, pretty much wire to wire, coming off an off the pace win in the Gotham. Heck with the big horses—the reason I made money in the race was Reporting for Duty, who isn’t running in the Derby. However, he was the Fulcrum horse in the Illinois and went off at 24-1, finishing second and completing a nice $117.20. It’s not rocket science (oops, sorry again, Matt).
Florida Derby
A nice win by Scat Cat, once again the Fulcrum in that race was second (Notional, who is not in the Derby). Scat Cat also won the Fountain of Youth.
The Kentucky Derby
20 colts. 3 year olds. Going a mile and a quarter for the first time. Carrying 126 pounds. Being yelled at by about 150,000 racing aficionados many of whom have consumed one too many mint juleps.
And one more thing. The official name of the race is ‘The Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum! Brands’ Are you kidding me? Yum! Brands? Think Taco Bell, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Pizza Hut. Maybe the largest restaurant company in the world, although referring to those purveyors of junk food as restaurants is a bit of a stretch.
I know they’re based in Louisville, but do we really need this kind of sponsor on racing’s most prestigious race?
Yuck. I’d boycott Taco Bell, KFC, and Pizza Hut, but I don’t eat at any of them anyway.
OK, I feel better now. Where were we?
Oh yes, the Kentucky Derby.
A good race to see if there’s a value bet, but certainly not the most predictable race to handicap. And so we begin our quest to see if there are any value horses lurking.
Pace Scenario
So, what kind of pace scenario are we likely to see?
I think there will be a considerable amount of pressure, and I’m looking for it to shape up like this:
Stormello, 17, is the Fulcrum and owns the fastest fractions. I’m not sure what you do out of the 17 post position, but I imagine that you gun for the front. It did win a race at Santa Anita from the 9 post—so what’s another 8 post positions? From the past performances, it looks as if he could do a 46 and 4, 110 and 4 pretty easily.
The 8, Hard Spun has been on the lead with fractions of 46 and 4, 111 and 4 and could be closer if Stormello doesn’t break really alertly.
The pressure really begins to build by the six furlong mark. You’ve got 6 horses who look as if they’ll make their move then—namely, in numerical order, the 7 Street Sense, the 9 Liquidity, the 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz, the 13, Bwana Bull, the 14, Scat Daddy, and the 18, Any Given Sunday.
They are all capable of putting down a 111 six furlong time in the middle of a long race. That pressure will probably make the front running E style horses go a little faster than they’d like to—I’m looking for a pace that’s pretty fast, around 46 and 2 or 3, and 110 and 3.
What does the morning line favorite, the undefeated Curlin, the 2, do against that pace? Don’t know. Its two route wins were not run that fast, 47 and change, 112 and change—it won those from just off the pace. At Gulfstream, he ran a blistering 7 furlong race, admittedly on a very fast race track but went wire to wire without pressure. So what will he do here? Don’t know. Were those fast 7 furlong internals because of the lack of pressure and speed of the track? Would Curlin have been able to win his last two if the pace were faster? Don’t know. If were looking at a champion, it won’t be a problem—he’ll take back, watch the front runners go, watch the pressuring horses, all 6 or 7 of them take a shot, and then put on the after burners. This is dictated by the unfortunate draw and the resulting 2 post position, not the best in a 20 horse field.
Will Albarado gun the horse knowing this? Perhaps. In which case, we’ll see even more pressure.
Zanjero, the 3, is a deep closer who has done pretty well against the kind of fractions it should see in the Derby. What impressed me about the colt was that it closed against that 46 and 3, 110 and 4 pace in the Louisiana Derby, and then was also gaining ground in the Blue Grass, after that 116 and 3 (not a typo) crawl to the 6 furlong pole. Closing against that crawl of a pace is not an easy thing to do.
It’s hard to tell what the 4, Storm in May, will do as only 2 of its 13 races have been dirt routes, the others either on the grass or sprints.
The 5, Imawildandcrazyguy, ran even races, finishing 4th in the Louisiana and 6th in the Florida against the same kind of pace it’s likely to see in the Derby.
The 6, Cowtown Cat, has only one race against these fractions, and it stumbled in that mile at Aqueduct. The wins in the Gotham and the Illinois were against much slower paces.
The 7, Street Sense, has been closing rather consistently. What’s interesting is that it closed from 9th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile to win by 10 lengths at Churchill. Impressive.
The 12, Nobiz Like Shobiz, has done the most consistently well against these fractions. In fact its win in the Holy Bull, close 3rd in the Fountain of Youth, and win in the Wood were all against similar paces to the one I’ve projected in the Derby.
Hard to tell what the 13, Sam P. will do against the pace, but the 14, Scat Daddy seemed to have no trouble against that kind of pace down in Florida.
The 15, Tiago, made a big close to win the Santa Anita, but its route races have all been against slower paces that it is likely to face tomorrow—tough call.
Circular Quay, the 16, won the Louisiana Derby against this type of pace, and has a closing running style.
The 19, Dominican, is a bit of a puzzle. Nice wins in the Rushaway and the Blue Grass in closing fashions last two, but it has never faced a pace as quick as it will probably see on Derby Day. Another don’t know.
Great Hunter, the 20, has a decent closing style, and a nice win in the RB Lewis, followed by a relaxing race in the Blue Grass. At least from the 20 post, it will be out of trouble at the start unless it makes a hard left turn.
Hooray, we’ve done our pace scenario.
Several unknowns, but here’s the bottom line. A couple of horses will go out, and then there are 7 that should make their move to the 6 furlong mark. Whether they will or not will depend on the traffic more than anything else, but assuming a clean break and beginning of the race, there should be a good amount of pressure in the race. Again, I’m projecting 46 and 2 or 3, and 110 and 3 for the 4 furlong and 6 furlong times. I’m going to be looking for horses that can do well against that pace, preferably with a closing style.
Reversals
There are, as always, a gaggle of reversals in the Derby, since the colts basically all come from the same prep races.
Here’s a little chart I did a couple of days ago in anticipation of the Derby. I’ve added the morning lines this morning:
Sedgefield 50-1 Reverser Lanes End (fin 4th)
Curlin 7/2 Reversal Winner Arkansas
Zanjero 30 Reverser Blue Grass (finished 3rd)
Storm in May 30 Reverser Arkansas (fin 2nd)
Imawild 50 Reverser Florida Derby (fin 6th)
Cowtown Cat 20
Street Sense 4 Reverser Blue Grass (finished 2nd)
Hard Spun 15 Reversal Winner Lanes End
Liquidity 30 Reverser Santa Anita Derby (finished 3rd )
Teuflesberg 30 Reverser Blue Grass (finished 4th)
Bwanna Bull 50 Reverser Santa Anita Derby (finished 4th)
Nobiz Like Shobiz 8 Reversal Winner Wood
Sam P 20 Reverser Santa Anita Derby (finished 2nd)
Scat Daddy 10 Reversal Winner Florida Derby
Tiago 15 Reversal Winner Santa Anita Derby
Circular Quay 8
Stormello 30 Reverser Florida Derby (fin 4th)
Any Given Saturday 12 Reverser Wood (finished 3rd)
Dominican 20 Reversal Winner Blue Grass
Great Hunter 15 Reverser Blue Grass (fin 5th)
In other words, virtually every horse is a reversal winner or reverser, and even Circular Quay won the Louisiana, in which Zanjero, Imawildandcrazyguy, and Liquidity also ran.
Advanced Form Cycle Patterns
For those of you who have not been to a Seminar lately or haven’t gotten the new Mega Seminar in a Box DVDs, some of this may read like a foreign language.
There are 3 Five Star Reversers in the race, 7, Street Sense, 20, Great Hunter (out of the Blue Grass) and 17, Stormello (from the Florida). In addition, the 20, Great Hunter is also a Type I pattern, as is 17, Stormello, who is also the Fulcrum. Great Hunter is predominantly a closer, however in its last race showed speed—a good example of the change in running style discussed at the last Seminar.
There are two other Type I patterns in the race, the 1, Sedgefield, the 13 Bwana Bull, but they may be compromised by the pace and a lack of strong numbers.
Storm in May and Liquidity are Type IIs, but not very strong patterns, and relatively early running styles (although Storm in May is tough to peg).
Bottom Line
Value, value, value.
This is a very confusing race, and most sane handicappers would pass or take small action bets. Firstly, the morning line favorite, Curlin, may be a champion.
I’ve come full circle on the race, at first being very circumspect about the horses coming out of the Blue Grass. However, looking at the reversals, the patterns, and how some of them have reacted to faster paces, and where they will be in the Derby, I think some of them have legitimate chances.
The most solid of them is the 7, Street Sense. I think this will be the 2nd choice, and even though it’s a 5 Star Reverser the odds and the two tough races last will have me looking elsewhere for a price.
A real bomb possibility is the 20 Great Hunter. Yes, I know, no horse has won out of the 20 post position since the Paleolithic Era, however, it’s a nice closer, a Five Star Reverser, it exhibited a change in running style last, and its good closes have been when it was wide, which it will certainly be on Derby Day. It has never faced a 110 and 3, but has done solidly against 111 and change.
The other bomb possibility coming from the Blue Grass is Zanjero, who has made some nice closes, and seems always to get a piece—whatever its win chances, it’s a good horse to use in the exotics.
I’m going to also use the 16, Circular Quay, in the exotics, as well as the 14, Scat Daddy. If I see big odds on the win side, I’ll take a shot. Short closers, no issue with a fast pace.
Nobiz could show up, but I think it’s going to be bet, and I don’t love its running style or hard races coming up to the Derby.
Obviously, if I’m going to use horses from the Blue Grass, I’ll use the winner of that race, Dominican, the 19 in exactas on a reversal theory, and will have Stormello in the middle of tris as the Fulcrum.
Lots of coverage? Yes. As expected in a 20 horse field full of champions.
What could upset the scenario? Curlin being a champ and running away with the race. Pressure not developing. A very sloppy track.
This and a hundred and one other questions.
Once again, the key is value, value and more value.
Well, that’s it for my initial thoughts on the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
The best of luck to you on Derby Day and always,
Michael Pizzolla
© Copyright 2007 by Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved.
P.S. Played a few holes with 3 time U.S. Open champion Hale Irwin last week. I’ll tell you all about that in a future Rant!
http://www.posttimedaily.com/rants/may07/MichaelandHale.html

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